tv Charlie Rose PBS February 11, 2011 11:00pm-12:00am PST
years. >> yes. >> rose: nasser. >> sadat. >> mubarak. >> yes, this is true. of course, if you compare the tunisian case and the egyptian case and i would go into other case, the ton easian army and the situation of the ton ease yafern army status and size is different from the egyptian army. the ton easian army was a small army, depoliticized and also the president there made a fatal mistake by actually asking the chief of staff to fire at the demonstrator. something which he disobeyed. and then he asked the president or toppled the president. and egypt is a different story. the military this is the military, egypt can claim ownership of the country based on the 1952 revolution and also based on other factors. the october war and the
legitimacy that has acquired. and also it is highly regarded by the majority of the population in egypt it is not a corrupt military. it is not an oppressive military. maybe the state security or secret services are repressive of the people and so on but not the military so it, as i said t is highly respected for the military and also i think it took a -- >> it is all from the beginning of the crisis, especially the part where it has a certain and kept reconfirming its commitment, its understanding of the legitimate demands ofthe egyptian people and their aspiration for freedom and democratic life and change. and also pledged to uphold these demands, even in the last statement this is exactly what the statement is sending or the message that the statement is sending. that the military is going to work and to uphold the legitimate demands of the egyptian people. >> do you know what happened between the president's address last night and the
announcement today? >> yes, i think there was clearly, clearly, look, if someone reads a sequence of events and some of the signals that the military has sent, i think it was very easy to conclude that he-- events will start unfolding to that direction. the military issued its statement understatement number one. in the arab world. >> rose: communique number one. >> in the arab world this means a coup is taking place. this is exactly the phrase. >> rose: when there is a coup they issue communiques. >> in numbers. so number one came. observing the situation. understanding legitimate demands and thenhey waited for the president to see the response to his statement. and the response was a resolve determination on the egyptian people to continue until mubarak leaves. and since i think the military took the signal it
has to step in. because other option was a return to start clashing. and bloody clashes. >> rose: you are saying afering mubarak's speech which was as many have said -- >> disappointing. >> rose: badly written, badly delered and seemed to be a patchwork of a number of kinds of things, that the military then realized that they had to do something more. >> right. >> rose: that nothing would be acceptable without the depar ture of the president. >> exactly. because the other alternative was dragging the military into some kind of a bloody and violent confrontations with the civilians. this is something that the military has always tried to avoid and has never done before. >> rose: and pledged not do here. >> and pledged not do here. >> rose: so how does this change what you might want to do at all. does this, i mean, the impact on your life. you clearly feel pride. you clearly feel achievement.
you clearly believe you participated in history opinions yes. >> rose: so do you go back to your job now and say i'm happy i did this for several -- >> yes, of course. >> weeks. >> i will have to resume my normal life. that's what i will do. i was never part of any political-- i was never politically active. just i felt the need to participate in such a change. i will go back to my normal life but now i'm more comfortable that i feel there is hope. i feel there could be change. i'm looking forward to when i come back to see the improvements and to try to see the community, sort of develop in a better direction, i will also try to see where i can help in any way. i mean to try to just get my thoughts together. i am trying to come back. i will be expecting some changes in the systems that have been placed, the
infrastructure is being developed more. honestly i'm not sure what i can do in person. but i'm really looking fooringd to seeing developingments in the country. i'm sure this can happen, if any new leader comes that can take the conscientious of the people or maybe then i can give my opinion. >> rose: how long do you think will take for this transition to take place. >> usually it takes from a year to three to five years. >> rose: three to five years. >> yes, we have case before. we have seen cases before, more tanya, sudan and so on where there was a military coup, take over. >> rose: could it be faster. could it be -- >> we hope it's faster. look, this is the task. one, they have to, of course the first thing, they have to suspend the constitution. they have to resolve parliament. the lower and upper chamber. and then they have to prepare for a new election, write a new constitution.
i don't think this will take less than six months to one year. the least. hopefully it takes, you know, a shorter period than that. because the word, the phrase six months has been circulating so hopefully it will be six months. but i doubt. i think it will be six months to one year, if not we go into three years. >> rose: so people are more willing, more accepting of that now that mubarak is gone. >> this is a major victory, yes. this was the top, the top demand on the list. that mubarak leave. >> rose: the second demand was the emergency room, that's now, you have the promise from the military. >> exactly. >> rose: third was nstitutional change. you have the promise from the military. >> that was the sequence. the first depar ture of mubarak. the ending the emergency law, rule, and so on. and then of course the issue of the-- and so investigations with those who have committed crimes gonnes the people. through the process, or even throughout the political and financial life of egypt and so on. so that will take time. that will take time, definitely. and of course to get their
act together to assess the situation, to see how they can contribute. whether old political parties will be banned from participating, whether they will allow new political parties that will take time. >> rose: does egypt have the potential to emerge from this democratic, prosperous, a role model for the region? >> yes. >> definitely. look, egypt is a-- egypt is a centerist country. centerist and central. >> rose: and secular. >> predominantly secular. yes. religion pys-- . >> rose: secular does not mean there is not a strong religious feeling t just means the government is separate from a theocrayy. >> definitely. and to add to its credit, egypt has had i think a successful secular liberal
experience before, from 1919 the egyptian revolution i'm sure you heard about, and especially in 1923, 23 constitution that was really a liberal constitution so we had a party line before, there were some weaknesses within the experience and some short comings but at least we had a legacy. even though it is-- we can build on this legacy there are some institutions in egypt that still have and have takened this liberal legacy. here i'm talking about the judicial system. the judicial system, judiciary in egypt in essence is liberal in terms of training, in terms of ethos and culture, judges and so on. they are liberal. and also more importantly, egyptians for the past at least eight years or ten years have managed to develop a highly diverse plurallistic reformist political agenda. that can really give the impetus for a successful and
conducive democratic life. so i'm hopeful in this regard. in terms it of economics, the economy of egypt, i know, the economy has suffered through the past three weeks. especially this is a-- state that depends on external revenues from tourism and suz canal and this type of revenues. but i'm hopeful and optimistic about the future of the egyptian economy because a democratic government will provide a rule of law, transparency, accountability and end corruption. these four elements killed the egyptian economy and created the ramp of corruption and state of cronyism that we all suffered from in the past three decades. >> rose: when you look at, first of all, there is, i would assume, because there has been some economic growth in egypt. there is a group of entrepreneurs who prepared to build on a new, they are certainly academics here. they are certainly 40% of
the population under 25. so the elements are there to build a new society. >> yes. >> yes. >> yes. >> i mean maybe what, from what i know, and please correct me if i'm wrong is that at a certain point of time egypt was 8% economic growth. i think now we're around 4%. i got this somewhere. >> so that's a major drawback or fall. you see countries like china. i don't know what is keeping us from beinging there. so you always wish your, to see better growth. i mean from an economic -- >> i think the key now is opportunity and hope this is exactly what all this -- >> opportunity to hope and confidence. >> and confidence, exactly. the egyptians have been in power. this is exactly what you hear in tahrir square, we have been in power. as a political scientist i don't like-- to be in politics. i don't like military to be
the safeguard or watchdog for democracy. because you do so, you writing riding a tiger. and the military is a tiger. it k any time, flip and turn over and devour you. and devour power. however people here will tell you, listen, we have defense of flee dom and we are capable of doing this again. if the military does not deliver on its promises we can take to the streets again. this is the celebration. so i see here the potential. as we said, as you said there is a educated youth. maybe it's not as competitive and trained as it should have been for a globalized world but this is an opportunity to train, to start streamlining the education system. to equip them with technical skills torque have a vision. to have a vision for a new democratic free egypt. that has all the potential as you said, the know how, the entrepreneurs. now we have been following some kind of structure adjustment program and new liberal policies and so on. so we have the
infrastructure for it. so hopefully this will carry on for the future. >> is it fair to sum this up that this is about the power of people to change their government? >> that's what we have seen here. >> yes. >> if they were willing to take the risk, if they were willing to be committed to their principleses, if they were willing to be clear about who they were and what they wanted. >> i think is the opportunity that took-- over will,000 injured in order to achieve this so this should not be forgotten. >> rose: it is not without a price. >> it is a price. it a heavy price. >> i know, some revolutions, you know, offered more than that, but every soul counts. every soul counts. and we should not forget these hundreds that fell for their dream, the dream of a prosperous free and happy
life. >> thank you for coming on this evening. >> thank you for inviting me. >> pleasure to meet you. >> thank you. pleasure to meet you. >> my thanks to all the pele who helped us bring these conversations about this momentous time to you, especially the people at video cairo sat who have helped us bring the pictures and the words back home. captioning sponsored by rose communications